S&P 500 (SPY) Report – 11/28/23

Good morning, traders!

The S&P 500 ($SPY) is trading below yesterday’s close. Let’s get into it…

Stock futures show signs of hesitation on Tuesday, reflecting investor caution after a strong performance throughout November. As the month draws to a close, there are indications that the impressive gains, which saw the Dow and S&P 500 rise by 6.9% and 8.5% respectively, and the Nasdaq climb by 10.8%, might be losing momentum. This comes after a modest decline in these indices on Monday, and amid expectations of economic data releases on housing prices and consumer confidence, as well as earnings reports from companies like CrowdStrike.

Investors are also closely monitoring statements from Federal Reserve officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. Their remarks could provide insights into the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. This attention to the Fed’s stance reflects ongoing concerns about interest rates and the overall health of the economy.

The broader economic context is also influencing investor behavior. There is growing anticipation for the upcoming release of GDP data for the third quarter and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation reading, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. These data points are crucial as they will influence expectations for the Fed’s next moves on interest rates. The November report on consumer confidence, due later Tuesday, is expected to offer further insights into consumer spending trends.

In the retail sector, companies are under scrutiny following the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping events. Investors are keen to assess the performance of retailers during this critical shopping period. Additionally, movements in commodity markets, especially oil prices, are also on investors’ radar, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude prices fluctuating due to factors like the U.S. dollar’s strength and potential OPEC+ output cuts. Overall, these varied economic and market signals are contributing to a cautious and watchful mood among investors as they navigate the end of November.

Tuesday Economic Events:
Redbook Sales 8:55am ET
Case-Shiller Home and FHFA 9:00am ET
Consumer Confidence 10:00am ET – High Volatility Expected
Richmond Fed Mfg Index 10:00am ET
Money Supply 1:00pm ET
7-YR Note Auction 1:00pm ET
API Crude Oil Data 4:30pm ET

Fed Speaker Scheduled:
Austan Goolsbee 10:00am ET
Christopher Waller 10:05am ET
Michelle Bowman 10:45am ET
Michael Barr 1:05pm ET
Michael Barr 3:30pm ET

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